Natural systems responses to global changes are of major concern for human societies (Easterling et al., 2000 ; Clark et al., 2001 ; Hulme, 2005 ; King, 2005 ; Schlesinger, 2006 ; IPCC, 2007). Under socio-economically realistic scenarii, global warming will continue, maybe at accelerated rhythm, until the end of 21th century and generate important modifications of all regional climates (Easterling et al., 2000 ; IPCC, 2007). A major challenge for biological sciences is to develop models able to predict natural systems responses to modifications in major components of their environment (Clark et al., 2001 ; Hulme, 2005 ; Sutherland,2006 ; Jetz et al., 2007). We propose to use approaches integrating explicitly processes underlying climate effects on populations (Sæther et al., 2004 ; Hulme, 2005 ; Sutherland, 2006).
The general aim of this PhD will be to evaluate the potential role of local and global climatic factors (temperature, snow depth, NAO…) on different moments (mean, variance but also symmetry) of demographic performance (survival and reproduction) and phenotypic quality (weight and body condition), in a vertebrate community with contrasting bio-demographic strategies. We will perform analysis under two organizational scales (individual and population) using the mammalian herbivore community living in French Alps (Marmots, Chamois, Ibex). The species are biologically distinct and differ on major bio-demographic strategies’ continuums, like body size (Peters 1983), replacement rate (Gaillard et al. 2005), iteroparity degree (Gaillard et al. 1989), capital or income breeder (Jonsson 1997).
